Tomorrow could be a big day for severe weather across much of Minnesota. Warm, moist air is in the process of returning to the area tonight, setting the stage for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes. The picture to the left shows the highest areas of instability moving all the way into southern Minnesota. The highest risk for tornadoes will be where this instability reaches the highest area of shear.

The picture to the left is a hodograph, which gives us an idea for how much wind shear exists. The sharp right turn in the lower levels is very conducive for tornadoes, possibly even a large tornado. This forecast hodograph is from the St. Cloud area tomorrow afternoon. The highest risk for tornadoes will be during the late afternoon, and basically parallel I-94 from Alexandria to the Twin Cities. People who live this area need to keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow afternoon. I think the tornado threat will be short lived as any discrete thunderstorms quickly evolve into a line by tomorrow evening. Once this happens wind and hail will become the biggest threats.

One thing that could inhibit the severe threat will be clouds during the morning. If southern Minnesota fails to clear out, the severe weather risk will be minimized as not enough instability will make it to the area of highest wind shear.

I will be out chasing tomorrow, so check out my live stream by clicking the Live tab above.

A couple of days have passed and my forecast from below remains intact. I think the best chance of accumulating snow will be across western Minnesota, Friday night into Saturday morning. It will only be a coating to maybe an inch at best. But areas of southern North Dakota could see a couple of inches. I think the Twin Cities does see rain form this storm, and even a few snow flakes overnight Friday into Saturday  morning. But overall it will remain mostly rain.  Any snow that does fall for western Minnesota should be gone by Saturday evening. The good thing though is that this system does have plenty of moisture to work with. Many areas will see much needed precipitation, whether it falls as rain or snow.

The same areas of western Minnesota that saw 8 tornadoes touch down last Saturday, could see accumulating snow this Saturday. Yes that's right, you could be trading your lawn mower in for a snow shovel next weekend, the last weekend in April. The image to the right shows the GFS forecasted snow accumulation for this weekend, and you can see a strip from Canada all the way through the lower Great Lakes. Think that it's too late in the spring or that it will be too warm for this to happen? Just ask people in Pennsylvania and New York that same question, where many picked up 6"+ of snow over the last 24 hours. The scary thing is that all models are picking up on this. Some of them are even heavier with the snow totals, including earlier runs of the GFS.

The graphic to the left shows the forecasted temperatures for Sunday from the EMCWF. Notice the cold temperatures to over the eastern Dakotas into southern Minnesota and Iowa. This is due to snow that is falling, or has already accumulated over these areas.

A number of friends asked me what I thought would happen with the rest of our spring, after our warmest March on record. I told them to not automatically think that summer was right around the corner, and that we would eventually make up for it in April and May. I have stated previously that I thought chances of a hard freeze and snow accumulation in the Twin Cities were low and I still believe that. April started off warm, but temperatures have quickly dropped off over the last two weeks. You can see in the image to the right the temperature anomalies across the world for March. The area with the highest temperatures above normal was the United States, and especially the eastern half.

Take a look at the graphic to the left. This shows the GFS forecasted temperature anomalies for the next 8 days. Temperatures will continue to be much below normal across the northeastern US, the same places that were the warmest during March. In addition to this forecast for the next 8 days, these areas have been already running much below normal for the last week. One of the first things you learn in Meteorology 101 is that the atmosphere always evens itself out. This is a prime example.

So do I actually think it will snow? Today the models continue to trend colder for the weekend, and the GFS/ECMWF both agree on a band of accumulating snow. The places most likely to see this are eastern North Dakota through northeast South Dakota, south through the Buffalo Ridge area of western/southern Minnesota and into northern Iowa. It is most likely that these areas will only get 1-2" of snow, but there could be areas of 2-4" of very wet/slushy snow. I think the Twin Cities will see a very chilly rain and I wouldn't make any outdoor plans for this weekend. As always it is early, and we'll see how this plays out over the next couple of days. Right now I am pretty confident that there will be accumulating snows for some areas of the northern plains this weekend. On the positive side, this system looks to bring more beneficial precipitation to the drought stricken areas of the Dakotas and Minnesota.

Tomorrow has all the makings of a major tornado outbreak from Nebraska through central Oklahoma. This will be the first and quite possibly the biggest outbreak of the year for the central plains. A vigorous trough digging into the four corners region will eject out into the central plains tomorrow. This will produce extreme wind shear, some of the best I've seen through the plains states. Dewpoints into the mid 60s will also help to create a very unstable air mass south of the warm front that should run near I-80 in Nebraska by early tomorrow afternoon.

The picture above shows where the SPC has already highlighted a high risk of severe weather for tomorrow. This is extremely rare for the SPC to issue high risks a day ahead. One area favorable for tornadoes will be the dryline, basically running the I-35 corridor from Salina, KS to Oklahoma City, OK. Another area will be centered on the triple point and warm front in Nebraska. This is the area I will be chasing tomorrow. In looking at the newest model runs, I think the high risk in NE will be shifted slightly farther to the southwest for tomorrow. Right now I am targeting central to south central Nebraska by early afternoon.

I will have the live stream up and running so be sure to check it out by clicking the Live link above.

Happy Easter! A word that hasn't been used in over a month will come back into the forecast for the next three days. Frost.  A hard freeze is even likely for much of the Upper Midwest over the next three days. The last time the temperature dipped below 32 degrees at MSP was March 9th. So we have gone a month without a frost here in the Twin Cities, which is pretty much unheard of for this time of the year.

• Monday: The most likely areas to see a frost/freeze for tomorrow morning will be North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Temperatures will stay above freezing for MSP and highs will rebound into the low 50s.
• Tuesday: This will be the coldest day of the week. A hard freeze is likely for all of the Dakotas, Minnesota, and even much of Iowa. The urban heat island affect should keep MSP above hard freeze criteria, but frost will still be likely as temperatures dip to around 30. Highs will struggle to get back to 50.
• Wednesday: This will be very similar to Tuesday morning, with the only exception being western South Dakota where temperatures will begin to warm out ahead of our next storm system. Highs will be much warmer for Wednesday, with temperatures back into the upper 50s.

Of course our record spring warmth would turn into much cooler temperatures just in time for the Twins home opener. Fans will have to dress a little warmer tomorrow, but maybe the cooler temperatures will help the team. After watching their first three games, it certainly can't hurt their chances.

For those of us needing rain, which is pretty much the entire Upper Midwest, there is hope for the end of the week through next weekend. A massive trough will dig across the western US for the end of the week, and will be responsible for producing a number of storm systems.
The picture to the left shows the total accumulated precipitation from Thursday through next Monday. This won't be 'exactly' where all the precipitation falls, but nonetheless shows that the central US will become very active.
Right now I think this is a bit overdone for us in Minnesota, but we will still see a number of chances for rain, especially this weekend. South Dakota looks to be in the best position to see beneficial rains from these systems, starting on Thursday and lasting through the weekend.

Severe weather is not expected for the northern plains, but this could turn out to be a very active week for severe weather across the southern plains. This looks to be a little too far south for me to get my first storm chase of the year in, but southern storm chasers should be very excited for the potential that this week holds.

Our run of summer weather is coming to an end...well sort of. What has already been a much cooler Sunday, will turn into a cloudy, cold, windy, damp, raw, or any other miserable weather term you want to use to describe Monday. Minneapolis will be stuck in the 40s, with a strong southeasterly wind, and a chance of rain during the afternoon. You only have to drive to South Dakota to find temperatures that will reach into the low 80s. Central South Dakota  would set up to be a pretty good storm chasing day tomorrow. Unfortunately the area that looks the best for tornadoes will remain capped for much of the daylight hours. South Dakota, cap, and March are also three words I should not be using in the same sentence. This is just another example on why it has been a strange late winter/early spring. There should be severe thunderstorms tomorrow evening for western South Dakota into southern North Dakota, but these should remain mainly wind/hail producers. That warm air will move east and bring our highs back into the low 70s for Tuesday, but the chances of severe weather here look non-existent.

Temperatures for the rest of the week look much cooler with highs around 50 on Wednesday, and into the low to mid 50s for Thursday/Friday. With the cooler temperatures we'll also see more chances of rain this week, starting with tomorrow and then again Thursday night, and Saturday morning. We'll then warm back up for early next week as highs look to shoot up into the 70s for the beginning of April. Even with the cooler temperatures, you can see that we'll still be running 10-15 degrees above normal 6-10 days out. It won't be 30 degrees above normal like we have been, but our daily average highs are increasing rapidly with an average high of 50 by April 1st. If you're a little disappointed like I am that we won't hang on to these summer temperatures all this week, just take a look back at March 25th of last year. That day our high was 33 and our low was 18. This was in the middle of a four day stretch with highs right around freezing.
The models are showing hints of cooler temperatures around and just after Easter. With how far ahead of schedule we are and the lack of snow cover all the way into southern Canada, I have a tough time seeing it become too cold. The main concern we'll have to try and avoid are the killing frost/freezes. The coldest morning this week looks to be Thursday, but temperatures shouldn't drop below the mid to upper 30s in the Twin Cities. Beyond that a frost/freeze looks unlikely for several days. The longer we can hold on to these above average temperatures, the better off we'll be.

For those of you hoping for a late shot of winter, looks like you are out of luck. Record setting temperatures are upon us and look like they are here to stay. It is currently 66 degrees at MSP which shattered our old record high of 59. There is no sign of a cool down either, with these warm temperatures sticking around for the foreseeable future. The picture to the left shows the 1-5 day temperature anomaly outlook from the ECMWF. You can see that much of the Upper Midwest will run 20 degrees above normal for the next 5 days. This is impressive until you look at days 6-10.

This picture shows days 6-10. Now the entire northern part of the country will be running 20 degrees above normal, with a bulls-eye of 30 degrees or warmer centered over Minnesota. Get used to hearing a 'record high was set today' for much of the northern part of the country through next week. Here's a look at our record highs at MSP for this week:

• Sunday: 61
• Monday: 69
• Tuesday: 66
• Wednesday: 64
  
• Thursday: 69
  
• Friday: 71
  
• St. Patty's Day: 76

With highs expected to be in the low 70s by late next week, all of these record highs will be within reach. The only exception will be Monday due to clouds/rain, and St. Patty's day where we might 'only' reach the low 70s.
Today our average high is 38, which will rise to 42 by the end of the week. Highs near 70 are not typical until the middle of May.

The reason for the extremely warm temperatures reside in the lack of snow cover and the jet stream. Pictured to the left, the jet stream is weak for this time of the year, and is running from the northwest through southern Canada. If I looked at this picture and didn't know the date, I'd swear it was from the middle of July! With no snow on the ground, the sun can now focus it's energy on warming the ground and the air, allowing for much warmer temperatures. Sorry winter fans, but with no end to this pattern in sight, enjoy May in March for now! Since it's Minnesota and it's March, I can't officially rule winter dead...yet.

Here's a few highlights on what to expect from the weather this week.

• Spring like temperatures are on the way for Tuesday as highs will be in the low 50s for the Twin Cities, but areas further south and west will be close to 60.
• Those warm temperatures will hang on through the overnight hours into early Wednesday morning before a cold front moves through. Temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s will return by Wednesday afternoon, as well as a chance of rain.
• Temperatures will rebound for Thursday and we can expect to remain at least 5-10 degrees above normal through the weekend.
• We'll see our next chance for rain this weekend, but there are no big snowstorms in sight.
• On an even brighter note, we are gaining 3 minutes of daylight per day. We are one week away from daylight savings time, which means our sunsets will move past 7pm next Sunday!
  

What could possibly be the largest tornado outbreak ever for March occurred on Friday, March 2nd. The picture to the left shows the preliminary storm reports for the day. Multiple reports for the same storms will continue to be consolidated over the next few days as damage surveys are completed. So far there are 79 preliminary reports of tornadoes. If this number is not reduced, it will break the previous record of 74 tornadoes for a single March outbreak. Hardest hit was the town of Henryville, IN, about 20 miles north of Louisville, KY. This was the strongest tornado of the day and was rated an EF-4. So far there are 39 deaths from this outbreak.


There are two incredible stories that occurred in this outbreak. You can read them by clicking the links below.
Toddler found in Indiana field after tornado is family's only survivor

Unfortunately the two year old girl is the only survivor from this tornado. The family tried to ride out the tornado in their mobile home. NEVER seek shelter in a mobile home if you are under a tornado warning.

7-year-old sucked from bed during tornado, dropped on interstate
Thankfully everyone is OK from this situation.

Below is awesome video from storm chaser Skip Talbot who filmed the Henryville, IN tornado.

Here is a graphical look at the snowfall totals from the February 28th and 29th storm. By comparing it to my final forecast, overall I think I did a decent job. By big mistake was extending heavy totals too far northward. Drier air from high pressure ate away at the precipitation as it moved north, greatly reducing snowfall totals there. The storm also moved farther south than what the models were predicting, which is what I thought it would do, but this also kept the precipitation from getting too far north. My prediction for the Twin Cities was pretty accurate, where many of the northern suburbs picked up 6-8" of snow. I thought there would be a little more cold air for this storm to work with farther north, creating a more efficient snowfall. This didn't really pan out, which is why the heaviest totals were generally around a foot. If you're looking for more snow just head to northern Wisconsin, where some spots picked up 15-18"!

Final snowfall prediction

The best thing to come from this storm was the overall precipitation. MSP picked up 1.35" for the two days, making it the most precipitation we've received since August 16th. Since then we've been running an 8" precipitation deficit, so any moisture we can get for the area is a good thing.

Looking Ahead:

• Light snow is currently falling, but shouldn't amount to more than a dusting to 1/2".
• Another round of very light snow is possible late Friday night into early Saturday.
• Heavier snows will fall further east tomorrow, where Milwaukee, WI could pick up 6-9"
• Temperatures will remain cool with highs in the 30s through the weekend.
• Much warmer temperatures are on the way for Tuesday/Wednesday where highs in the 50s look very possible. Further west in South Dakota, highs in the 60s are possible.
• Next chance of significant rain/snow won't be until late Wednesday into Thursday next week.

A big severe weather outbreak is possible tomorrow, especially from Tennessee into Kentucky and southern Indiana. A moderate risk for severe thunderstorms is already out for these areas. Unfortunately tornadoes, some strong, are very possible in some of the same areas that were hit hard by severe weather yesterday.

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I'll start off by saying this is the most difficult forecast I've made in a long time. A very large and messy storm will impact the northern plains over the next two days. My updated total snowfall accumulations are shown in the picture to the left. Even though our snowfall amounts may be limited due to rain tomorrow evening, dynamic cooling should be enough to still provide a pretty good snow band over the Twin Cities for Wednesday morning. I expect around 6" at MSP, with 3-6" for the south metro, and 6-9" for the north metro.

The biggest change from yesterday to today is the amount of warm air that could move northward with this system. This could bring mixed precipitation as far north as Watertown, SD to St. Cloud and Lake Mille Lacs in Minnesota. Rain is now possible for much of the Twin Cities metro tomorrow evening. Farther south from Sioux Falls, SD to Mankato and Rochester, MN rain will be the main precipitation mode for most of this storm. Even though it will snow less in these areas, very heavy rain of up to 1" is still possible.